While Polymarket dominated global prediction market volume in 2024, a different battle was happening in the United States. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event contracts exchange, had been quietly building a US-legal alternative since 2021. Founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara (both ex-Goldman Sachs), Kalshi pursued the slow regulatory path that Polymarket had bypassed.
The two platforms targeted similar markets but couldn’t legally compete in the same jurisdictions. Polymarket geo-blocked US users (in theory) and operated globally. Kalshi was the only legal option for American prediction market traders, but its initial product was limited to “designated contract markets” — boring questions like “Will GDP exceed X?” The platform couldn’t offer election markets without CFTC approval.
The breakthrough came in October 2024, when Kalshi won a federal court ruling allowing it to offer US presidential election contracts. Within days, Kalshi launched the same election markets that Polymarket had been running for months. Volume exploded. Both platforms now offered election markets, with Kalshi serving US users and Polymarket serving everyone else. The competition was instant.
The Kalshi vs Polymarket dynamic represented two different visions for prediction markets. Polymarket embraced crypto-native infrastructure and bypassed regulators. Kalshi worked within the system and built credibility with institutions. Both approaches had merit. By 2025, both platforms were thriving in parallel, serving different audiences. The split jurisdictions might be temporary — but for now, US traders went to Kalshi, global traders went to Polymarket, and serious crypto natives often used both.
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