Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market exchange — the first and only CFTC-regulated venue for event contracts in the United States. Founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara (both MIT graduates), Kalshi launched in 2021 with contracts on weather, economic data, and cultural events. But the company’s defining battle was its fight to list election contracts — a fight that went all the way to federal court.
The CFTC initially approved Kalshi to list “event contracts” on various outcomes. But when Kalshi applied to list contracts on US Congressional election results, the CFTC said no — arguing that election contracts were contrary to the public interest and could enable election manipulation. Kalshi sued, and in September 2024, a federal judge ruled in Kalshi’s favor, allowing the platform to list election contracts.
The ruling was significant beyond Kalshi. It established that prediction markets have a legal pathway in the US, that the CFTC can’t blanket-ban event contracts without specific evidence of harm, and that Americans have a right to access these markets. Kalshi listed election contracts just weeks before the 2024 presidential election, generating significant trading volume.
Kalshi’s model is fundamentally different from Polymarket. Kalshi operates as a regulated US exchange — KYC-verified US users, FDIC-insured deposits, IRS tax reporting. Polymarket operates offshore with crypto-native infrastructure. The tradeoff: Kalshi offers regulatory certainty and legal protection; Polymarket offers higher limits, no KYC, and crypto-native features. Both platforms benefit from the growing mainstream interest in prediction markets, and the coexistence of regulated and crypto-native platforms may be the long-term equilibrium — different products for different users.
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